The prolonged stagnation witnessed in the Central European grocery market appears to be over, and the market is expected to witness steady growth in the coming years with an expected income generation of 145.8 bn in 2021. Furthermore, the regional markets are also expected to witness increases. However, the rates will significantly vary between the different countries.

In the Romanian and Bulgarian markets which are regarded as the least developed markets in the region, there is an expected turn of economic events which will make these markets potentially become the fastest growing in the coming years. The share of modern retail in Bulgaria is still very low; the value was put at 40% in 2015. However, with the presence of hypermarkets and discount stores, there is an expected gain in market share in the years ahead which I expected to increase.

The situation in the Czech market can be described as the other end of the spectrum. The modern retail market has attained its highest share concerning the entire reviewed grocery markets (over 70% in 2015). This is also the case in the Slovakian markets; the grocery market in the Czech Republic will experience the slowest growth in the region in the coming years as indicated by our forecast.

In terms of per capita market value, Bulgaria and Romania are reported to be significantly below the regional average. In Bulgaria, the markets per capita value was 67% of the CE average according to the reports for 2015. The Romanian market per capita, on the other hand, was reported as 59%. It is also important to note that Bulgaria is expected to converge to the regional average regarding the per capita market size (this value will reach 75% in 2021), but according to the current forecast, Romania is expected to remain at about the same level at 60% in 2021.

In addition, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are also expected to converge to the regional average. This is an indication that their current margin over this value will become smaller in the coming years. The Slovakian market will shift from 124% of the regional average recorded last year to 116% in 2021, and the Czech market will shift from 114% to 106%. Poland will remain within the range 118% to 119% of the regional average during the period under review.